Elmont Online

ALBANY -- Citing what he described as "grim" revenue reports, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said the next few weeks will determine whether lawmakers will have to be involved in closing the current-year state budget gap, which has grown to $350 million.

"I'm going to continue to watch (revenue numbers) over the next coming weeks, because it's been a little bit like watching a bouncing ball," Cuomo said in a radio interview Monday morning, shortly after the Budget Division put out its midyear report.

Budget officials "are giving me a range of options, and then depending on those options ... we may need a special session," he told WCNY's Susan Arbetter.

The Budget Division's assessment was released two weeks after its statutory deadline, a delay officials ascribed to volatility in global markets shaken by the European debt crisis. That anxiety and "persistently disappointing data on employment, consumer confidence and income" were identified as the biggest drags on the economy in general and the financial sector, which generates as much as a quarter of New York's tax revenue, in particular.

"With the prospect of a weak bonus season on Wall Street," the report states, "even more negative pressure is being placed on the state's receipts outlook."

The report identifies a $404 million drop in tax receipts -- including $175 million in personal income tax collection -- as the largest component of the gap in the current fiscal year, plus added expenses for mental hygiene programs and debt service. These are offset in the state's ledger by larger-than-expected revenues and other agency savings to produce the $350 million deficit.

The long-term forecast didn't offer much encouragement, either: The projected deficit for the 2012-2013 fiscal year, which begins April 1, has grown from $2.4 billion to at least $3 billion -- and could run as high as $3.5 billion, the report says.

The state already has imposed the initial elements of a "fiscal management plan." Budget Division spokesman Morris Peters said agencies have been asked to review all discretionary payments, avoid hiring wherever possible, review all contracts and "be vigilant with each and every spending decision."

Until now, neither Cuomo nor legislative leaders had shown any inclination to return to Albany before the start of the regular session in January. The Legislature hasn't convened since late June -- marking the first time in years that unfinished business hasn't pulled them back to town at least once.

Republican Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos said his conference was prepared to work to make sure the budget is "structurally balanced," and said its own fiscal estimates were forthcoming.

Skelos reiterated his opposition to new taxes or the return of the surcharge on New Yorkers making more than $200,000 that's set to expire at the end of December.

"Senate Republicans continue to believe that it is both possible and necessary to manage next year's budget much like we did this year, when the Legislature and governor eliminated a much larger deficit without raising taxes," Skelos said in a statement.

The 2011-12 budget, which passed on time, was designed to close an estimated gap of $10 billion.

A spokesman for Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver said the Democratic conference would convene its Board of Economic Advisors "to create our own estimates in the near future."

The annual "Quick-Start" session, in which the Budget Division and the legislative conferences present their respective assessments of the state's fiscal picture, has not yet been scheduled.

Cuomo cautioned that the numbers -- which had been up at the outset of the fiscal year before dropping in recent months -- were ever-changing.

"The news is grim ... but again, there's been a lot of volatility," he said.

One thing remaining static is Cuomo's opposition to renewing the high-income surcharge, which he believes places New York at a competitive disadvantage to other states.

"You know my position on taxation, and that's my position," he said. "I'm trying to deal with the hole we have today."

Jimmy Vielkind contributed. Reach Seiler at 454-5619 or This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .