Elmont Online

ALBANY -- Will Irene and its flooding lead to a boom-and-bust syndrome for New York's struggling job market?

The answer is as changeable as the weather but there are some distinct possibilities. The wreckage created by this week's floods will likely create a mini-boom for road and bridge workers who will have to re-build much of the upstate infrastructure. And it will keep carpenters, plumbers and home remodeling workers busy.

The impact on the state workforce will emerge as a better picture of the flooding's overall budget impact forms.

Construction crews will be busy, said Mike Elmendorf, president and CEO of the Associated General Contractors of New York State, which represents road and bridge builders.

"This is unprecedented kind of stuff," Elmendorf said, adding timing will be important as some jobs can be done before winter.

"We expect our remodelers will be very busy," said Lew Dubuque, executive vice president of the state Builders Association.

But with the cost of Irene's cleanup estimated to be high -- Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Wednesday estimated the damage at $1 billion -- some state workers wonder if it would cause a budget hole that would trigger layoffs.

Most observers said that was unlikely, because any real budgetary problems would come from an economic downturn or other event causing revenues to drop, rather than a natural disaster.

"It will really be a function of how the economy does in the next four or five months," said Elizabeth Lynam, deputy research director at the Citizens Budget Commission, a spending watchdog group.

The cleanup and rebuilding will need lots of manpower from the private and public sectors.

"If anything, it probably goes the other way. They need people to help with the cleanup," said Stephen Madarasz, spokesman for the Civil Service Employees Association, whose members just approved a five-year contract.

In exchange for higher health costs and three years without raises, CSEA members received broad assurances against layoffs for the next two years. There are exceptions, however, including a "material or unexpected change in the state's fiscal situation.''

Members of another major state workers union, the Public Employees Federation, are voting on the same contract this month.

Others agree with Madarasz that state workers will likely be extra busy in coming months, at least in agencies which will shift their focus to rebuilding efforts.

Road and bridge companies, for instance, work with the state Department of Transportation, which puts out bids for and oversees construction projects.

State Department of Environmental Conservation workers will be cleaning up spills from flood-damaged home heating oil tanks, or inspecting dams and levees.

"There are a lot more levees in New York state than people realize," said Wayne Bayer, a PEF employee and member of the union's executive board.

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